War, what is it good for?
Pardon the all too obvious Edwin Starr reference on an extremely serious subject matter.
I feel like I need a disclaimer for this article. This isn’t an article that forwards the Western media narrative, nor is it an article that’s apologetic for the actions of Putin. This isn’t an emotional piece to profess how closely, “I stand with the Ukrainian people,” either – however true that may be.
I want to explore another aspect of the war in Ukraine. The damages caused to the Ukrainian people has been and will continue to be well-documented by our popular media sources. This article, however, will explore the damages caused to the Russian people as a result of the sanctions.
Russian people are due to suffer the brunt of the sanctions imposed by the West. But just because the leader of Russia is acting in a certain manner, does it mean that the citizens deserve to suffer the consequences of them?
It’s a complicated question, but one that is very important to consider. I’ll walk you through my research and thought process on the matter. Please feel free to disagree with me and form your own opinion.
Let’s go.
What’s the Deal With Sanctions?
Firstly, what are sanctions and why are they being used?
Sanctions are unilateral or, “collective action against a state considered to be violating international law,” in order, “to compel that state to conform.”
More simply (and in context), sanctions are penalties that a group of countries (the West) impose on another country (Russia) because they have been found to break some sort of international law or agreement.
Usually, these penalties are meant to cause financial difficulties for the targeted country. They are a way of responding to a serious geopolitical situation without directly having to use violence.
The goal of sanctions is to compel the targeted country to do the imposing country’s will. In this case, the immediate goal would be to have Russia cease their attack on Ukraine, remove their military from Ukraine, and recognize Ukraine as a sovereign nation. I’m not at the negotiating table, but it’s surely something similar to that.
In one of the most acclaimed works ever published on the subject, Carl von Clausewitz in his aptly titled book, On War, made the assertation that war is merely politics by other means.
I won’t be the first to say this, but I would suggest that sanctions are war by other means.
How Effective are Sanctions?
International sanctions are nothing new. They’ve been around forever so we can look back on the history of sanctions and judge how effective they’ve been.
There is a lot of research and a lot of studies on the topic, and they all generally agree on one thing: sanctions have not proven very effective as a tool to secure foreign policy goals.
Sanctions strangle a targeted country’s economy with the hopes of forcing them to comply. Unfortunately, it’s the everyday citizens of the targeted country who are affected the most. Only in rare instances do the sanctions actually achieve their stated goals.
Sanctions fail to achieve their aims in 65 to 95 percent of the cases in which they are imposed and that it is the poorest that suffer the most through their implementation, rather than the elites that the sanctions aim to target.
UK Department for International Development
The study where the above quote is from also states that the suffering caused by sanction campaigns are comparable to that of an armed military campaign – just with a lower success rate in regime change.
By targeting the country as a whole rather than its military, the hope might be to have the Russian people rise up and reject their leader. This is false hope. Firstly, Russian people have protested their government’s actions, leading to more than 6,000 arrests.
Second, sanctioned states often deliberately increase the economic hardship of its sanctioned citizens to make any revolt prove far too costly for the people.
I’m not suggesting that we should blow the door down on Ukraine’s western borders and march our military through the country to push Russia back. No, not at all. I’m just saying that the sanctions being imposed are hardly likely to get Putin to back down – and that the Russian people will pay a severe price for the West’s ‘war by other means.’
Who Do Sanctions on Russia Impact The Most?
The Western sanctions have been targeting Russia’s elite, and while their pockets might be a fraction lighter now, they are well-equipped to circumvent the restrictions and were likely prepared for this scenario.
Russia was sanctioned by the West in 2014 for its previous invasion of Ukrainian territory, Crimea. The sanctions were ineffective, Russia was successful in absorbing the region, and the Russian elites were put on notice as to what a predictable Western response will be to a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Here we are eight years later, with a much larger military invasion, and heavier sanctions in response. Russian elites are prepared for sanctions though. They saw it happen in 2014 and would have moved their money around in the event this happened again. Moreover, they would’ve known in advance that Putin’s intentions were to invade Ukraine and could’ve predicted the incoming Western sanctions.
So, if the elites aren’t feeling the brunt of the sanctions, who is?
It’s still early for the sanctions to have a measurable impact on the Russian people, but the preliminary effects can already be seen.
Russia’s currency, the ruble, has plummeted to a record low against the US Dollar.
Russians have been lining up at ATMs to withdraw their money and convert it to a more stable currency before their savings become utterly worthless. There is a financial crisis on the brink for Russians.
Are we justified in potentially sending millions of people into starvation, poverty, and an impending humanitarian crisis?
How Have People Been Affected by Sanctions in the Past?
It will take time for the dust to settle on the current Russian sanctions to understand the full scope of their effects. The Ruble crashing, though, is a sure sign of things to come.
Let’s turn back to the academia quickly to view the effects that sanctions have had on regular citizens. Generally, elites are able to negotiate the adverse effects much easier than normal citizens.
International sanctions increase the poverty gap, increase income inequality, affect women, minority communities, and other marginalized groups harder, while having a significant negative impact on the living standards and humanitarian situation of the sanctioned population.
The United Nations has repeatedly said that sanctions are not a humane policy and must no longer be allowed to be part of the arsenal of the powerful nations.
Women are most likely to feel the impacts of the sanctions harder than men. There are a few factors contributing to this: during the sanctions period, women are more likely to be unemployed than men, women occupy lower paying jobs in general and are more likely to face arbitrary layoffs, and women tend to be more vulnerable in a society.
As well, any marginalized group is going to feel the effects of sanctions more severely than the general population.
This is really an alarming situation that we have on our hands. What is meant to be a less destructive way of responding to Putin’s actions, will punish innocent civilians to the point where Russian citizens may be facing a long-term situation not unlike those of Ukraine.
I want to take a brief look at the effects sanctions have had on populations in the past with specific examples.
Cuba
Cuba’s example comes under very different circumstances. The sanctions against Cuba are only applied by one country, the USA, and they have been applied so heavily that it is given a new name, embargo.
All trade with Cuba has been outlawed by the USA since 1962, and it continues to be that way, despite the UN petitioning every year since 1992 to end the embargo – only the USA and Israel regularly vote against it.
As far as the effects of the embargo, I’ll hand the floor over to the American Association for World Health (AAWH).
“It is our expert medical opinion that the U.S. embargo has caused a significant rise in suffering – and even deaths – in Cuba. For several decades the U.S. embargo has imposed significant financial burdens on the Cuban health care system. But since 1992 the number of unmet medical needs – patients going without essential drugs or doctors performing medical procedures without adequate equipment – has sharply accelerated.”
American Association for World Health
The sanctions had goals of distancing and evening severing ties between Cuba and the Soviet Union (later Russia). It had the opposite effect.
Iran
Sanctions have been imposed on Iran by the United States since 1979, increasing in severity during the Trump administration.
The U.S. sanctions were found to be seriously destroying Iran’s health infrastructure, leading to immediate deaths and suffering.
Human Rights Watch writes, “current economic sanctions, despite the humanitarian exemptions, are causing unnecessary suffering to Iranian citizens afflicted with a range of diseases and medical conditions. Some of the worst-affected are Iranians with rare diseases and/or conditions that require specialized treatment.”
Venezuela
Sanctions have been imposed on Venezuela starting in 2008 but were ramped up during the Trump administration.
The Center for Economic and Policy Research concluded that the US sanctions on Venezuela could be responsible for as many as 40,000 deaths from 2017-2018.
“Sanctions which can lead to starvation and medical shortages are not the answer to the crisis in Venezuela. Precipitating an economic and humanitarian crisis is not a foundation for the peaceful settlement of disputes.” – Idriss Jazairy, a special UN rapporteur who reports to the Human Rights Council.
Final Thoughts
It’s hard to predict what the outcome will be of the economic sanctions on Russia, but it doesn’t look good. A potential unintended consequence is that Russia strengthens its ties with China, much the same way that Cuba did with the Soviets.
What’s happening to Ukrainians is abhorrent. They don’t deserve to be used as pawns in their government’s chess game. But neither do the Russian people. They didn’t ask for this war, and they don’t deserve the impending humanitarian crisis if sanctions are maintained at length.
Photo by Plato Terentev from Pexels
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